According to Joseph A. Wulfsohn of Fox News, “Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth says Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November.”
“Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a ‘91 percent’ chance of winning in November.”
Allow me to remind you of another poll that had a “heavy favorite!”
I think we have seen these polls are extremely flawed and propagandistic in nature.
‘“Mediaite’ [Mediaite is a digital news site that covers political news] reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his ‘Primary Model,’ which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.”
‘“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,’ Norpoth said. ‘This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.’”
“As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 [hanging chad] election of George W. Bush.”
“Norpoth’s model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.”
“Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent.”
“Norpoth stressed that ‘enthusiasm is key.’”
And I think we all know where the enthusiasm lies.
“Norpoth’s model, which correctly predicted Trump’s victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama’s 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes.”
Please check out my own prediction blogs from March 16, 2020,
EXTRA, EXTRA, READ ALL ABOUT IT! THE DEMOCRAT PARTY WON’T BE THE SAME AFTER THE 2020 ELECTION!
And from December 18, 2018.
“It’s tough to make predictions…, especially about the future.” – New York Yankee great, Yogi Berra
“The Stony Brook professor appeared on ‘The Ingraham Angle’ back in May making the same prediction.”
“While the ‘Primary Model’ hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.”
All I can say is, “All of you democrats/socialists/fascists/communists out there…, you just go on believing you have a 12 point lead over our guy. That’s fine with us.”
I refuse to believe that the majority of the people in this country…
… want to defund and do away with police departments across the country.
… feel that rioting, looting and burning is a right.
… agree that the mob rules, and can destroy any statue, monument or memorial they feel like destroying, and at any time.
… feel that criminals have more rights than law abiding citizens do.
… feel that illegal immigrants have more rights than law abiding citizens do.
… feel it’s okay to disrespect our country and our flag.
… feel that it’s okay for politicians and the media to lie right to our faces, and on an on-going basis.
… feel that it’s okay to mercilessly attack, investigate, and harass our duly elected president.
… feel that it’s okay for our schools and colleges to operate as indoctrination centers for the liberals and their socialist/fascist/communist ideals.
… feel it’s okay for our country to have open borders, allowing people to stroll into our country whenever they want, while immediately becoming eligible for any and all benefits.
… feel our country and our society is evil at its core and needs to be “transformed” into some other vague type of socialist/fascist/communist hybrid type of government.
… want our tax cuts rescinded, and our taxes raised.
… want business tax cuts rescinded, and businesses forced out of our country again.
… want to allow climate change scientists to dictate our economy and our way of life.
… want the price of gas to go up, and want us to become dependent on Middle Eastern oil again.
… want to hand over all of our guns and do away with our 2nd amendment rights.
… want to move away from a free market economic system to a socialistic system.
… want our jobs to head back overseas.
… want our manufacturing companies to disappear…, again.
… want our country to be played for a fool, internationally…, again.
… want government to control every aspect of our lives.
And that’s just the start of what I refuse to believe the majority of the people in this country support.
Just sayin’.
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Mr. Erickson Rules! 
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